Most metals fall, polysilicon drops nearly 2%, precious metals pull back, European shipping index falls 4.54% [SMM Midday Review]

SMM June 19 News:

Metal Market:

As of the midday close, domestic base metals showed mixed performance, with SHFE nickel up 0.39%. SHFE copper fell 0.14%, SHFE aluminum dropped 0.27%. SHFE zinc declined 0.64%, while SHFE tin rose 0.16%. SHFE lead increased 0.62%.

In addition, the main continuous futures contract for foundry aluminum rose 0.71%, while the main continuous contract for alumina fell 0.41%. Lithium carbonate dropped 0.13%, silicon metal rose 0.4%, and polysilicon fell 1.98%.

The ferrous metals series mostly fell, with iron ore down 0.29%, rebar down 0.2%, HRC down 0.1%. Stainless steel rose 0.4%. For coking coal and coke: coking coal fell 0.63%, and coke dropped 0.76%.

In the overseas metal market, as of 11:42, LME metals generally fell, with LME copper and LME nickel slightly declining. LME zinc fell 0.3%. LME tin rose 0.34%. LME lead slightly increased, while LME aluminum dropped 0.12%.

In the precious metals market, as of 11:42, COMEX gold fell 0.53%, and COMEX silver dropped 0.35%. Domestically, SHFE gold fell 0.13%, and SHFE silver dropped 0.82%.

As of the midday close, the most-traded contract for the European container shipping index fell 4.54%, closing at 22010.9.

As of 11:42 on June 19, the midday futures market performance for some contracts:

》SMM Metal Spot Prices on June 19

Spot and Fundamentals

HRC: This week, SMM statistics showed that the social inventory of HRC in 86 warehouses (large sample) nationwide was 2.9795 million mt, down 78,200 mt MoM, a decrease of 2.56% MoM and 27.13% YoY. The nationwide social inventory continued its downward trend this week, with the rate of decline expanding... 》Click for details

Macro Front

Domestic:

[National Development and Reform Commission (NDRC) and relevant departments of five Central Asian countries reached four cooperation documents] From June 16 to 18, 2025, President Xi Jinping attended the second China-Central Asia Summit in Kazakhstan. During the summit, the NDRC and relevant departments of the five Central Asian countries reached four cooperation documents on jointly building the "Belt and Road," the China-Europe (Asia) freight train, artificial intelligence, and other areas. The four documents are: 1. "Action Plan for High-Quality Co-construction of the 'Belt and Road' between China and Central Asian Countries." 2. "Initiative of the Governments of the People's Republic of China, the Republic of Kazakhstan, the Kyrgyz Republic, the Republic of Tajikistan, Turkmenistan, and the Republic of Uzbekistan on Deepening Cooperation in the China-Europe (Asia) Freight Train." 3. "Memorandum of Understanding between the National Development and Reform Commission of the People's Republic of China and the Ministry of Digital Development and Technological Innovation of the Kyrgyz Republic on Jointly Building the China-SCO Countries (Kyrgyz Republic) Artificial Intelligence Application Cooperation Center."Fourth is the "Memorandum of Understanding between the National Development and Reform Commission of the People's Republic of China and the Agency for Innovation and Digital Technologies of the Republic of Tajikistan on Deepening Cooperation in Artificial Intelligence." (Cailian Press)

The People's Bank of China conducted 203.5 billion yuan in 7-day reverse repo operations today, with the operating interest rate remaining unchanged at 1.40%. Today, 119.3 billion yuan in reverse repos matured. As 119.3 billion yuan in 7-day reverse repos matured today, a net injection of 84.2 billion yuan was achieved.

[Cui Dongshu: National passenger vehicle market had 3.45 million units in inventory and 54 days of inventory at the end of May] Cui Dongshu, Secretary General of the China Passenger Car Association, stated in an article that at the end of May 2025, the national passenger vehicle industry had 3.45 million units in inventory, a decrease of 50,000 units from the previous month and an increase of 160,000 units compared to May 2024, indicating a sustained high level of inventory. The current policy initiatives have brought overall optimism among producers, with relatively high production due to trade-in policies and relatively active wholesale activities by manufacturers, leading to the industry's inventory reaching a new high in nearly two years. With the promotion of central government policies to boost consumption and the active marketing activities such as auto shows across the country, as sales gradually enter the off-season from June to August, sales are expected to decline over the next three months. Therefore, based on the inventory at the end of May 2025 and future sales forecasts, the existing inventory is estimated to support future sales for 54 days, slightly increasing the overall inventory pressure compared to 54 days in May 2023 and 51 days in May 2024. (Cailian Press)

►The central parity rate of the RMB against the US dollar in the interbank foreign exchange market on June 19 was 7.1729 RMB per US dollar.

US dollar:

As of 11:42, the US dollar index rose by 0.15% to 99.01. The market is assessing signals from the US Fed regarding a slowdown in the pace of future interest rate cuts. The US Federal Reserve announced on the 18th that it would maintain the target range for the federal funds rate at 4.25% to 4.5%. The dot plot shows that Fed officials predict the median federal funds rate will fall to 3.9% by the end of this year, unchanged from previous forecasts, suggesting that there may still be two interest rate cuts this year. Fed Chairman Jerome Powell stated at a press conference that the current US economic situation is solid, but adjustments to trade and fiscal policies remain uncertain, and tariff hikes may push up US prices, with the impact of tariffs on inflation potentially being more persistent.

Other currencies:

On Thursday (June 19), global financial markets turned their attention to London, where the Bank of England is set to announce its June interest rate decision at 19:00 Beijing time. This meeting not only concerns the future direction of the UK economy but also adds complexity due to energy price fluctuations triggered by the escalation of the Israel-Iran conflict in the Middle East. The market generally expects the Bank of England to maintain the current interest rate at 4.25% to address the multiple challenges of economic slowdown, easing inflation, and heightened external uncertainties. However, internal disagreements over policy and drastic changes in the external environment have made this decision a focal point of attention. (Huitong Finance)

Data Aspects:

Today, data including Australia's May RBA Foreign Exchange Transactions - Market Channel, Australia's May seasonally adjusted unemployment rate, Australia's May change in employed population, Switzerland's June central bank policy interest rate, China's May total electricity consumption - monthly, and the UK's June central bank benchmark interest rate will be released. Additionally, notable events include: the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) of the US Fed announcing its interest rate decision and Summary of Economic Projections; Fed Chairman Powell holding a monetary policy press conference; Fed Chairman Powell holding another monetary policy press conference; the Swiss National Bank announcing its interest rate decision; the Bank of England announcing its interest rate decision; and the 2025 Lujiazui Forum being held in Shanghai.

》The US is observing a public holiday today. Here's an overview of the holiday arrangements for overseas market exchanges:

Crude Oil Aspects:

Both WTI and Brent crude oil futures fell. As of 11:42, WTI crude oil was down 0.1%, and Brent crude oil was down 0.27%. The market is weighing the possibility of US intervention in the Israel-Iran conflict and is hesitant to establish new positions. Analysts say that direct US involvement would escalate the conflict, exposing the region's energy infrastructure to a higher risk of attacks.

Iran is the third-largest oil producer in OPEC, with a daily oil production of approximately 3.3 million barrels. More importantly, about 19 million barrels of oil and oil products pass through the main waterway of the Strait of Hormuz every day. The market is generally concerned that this conflict could disrupt trade flows in the Strait. (Webstock Inc.)

Overview of the Spot Market:

►Spot premiums/discounts decline, market trading activity sluggish [SMM North China Spot Copper]

►[SMM Daily Review of Nickel Sulphate] On June 19, nickel salt prices continued to decline

►[SMM Weekly Balance of HRC] HRC production fluctuates rangebound, inventory decline accelerates this week

Other spot metal market reviews will be updated later. Please refresh to view~